In seven years, I will be eligible for Social Security. I just stated that I’d bet my first check that I don’t get my first check. Except it won’t happen that way.
It’s very rare for things to just collapse and go away. Social Security will not just vanish in the next seven years. The eligibility age will rise. The payouts will shrink. At the very least, the cost-of-living increases will decrease, which is already happening. (Why do YOU think the inflation calculation keeps changing to show lower numbers – and no politician, of either party, says anything about it?) Etc… It will limp along for decades, getting worse and worse.
Even if I live forever, I will never get out what I’ve paid in. The system is not designed that way and demographics have doomed its design. Thank you, Malthusians, may you rot in hell. I suppose there is some schadenfreude to be had along the way as they rot in old age because they couldn’t “bring children into this awful world.” Idiots.
A far more interesting question is: What will happen to 401(k)s? There are trillions of dollars sitting out there, making politicians salivate. Boomers are safe for at least a decade, probably two. There are still lots of them and, as a demographic block, age brings power – however untrue that may be for any individual. Being an older Gen-Xer, I’ll probably not see much change before I am forced to start drawing upon mine. I highly doubt that I will be the one who empties it, though.
We’re in political paralysis due to the changing nature of late 20th/early 21st century life and hence politics. The parties are realigning themselves. That will be happening for quite some time, yet. Peter Zeihan’s collapse is happening before our eyes (and I thought he was a bit too pessimistic, heh). The Fourth Turning (which I didn’t at all like) is turning along much as predicted.
Getting the US budget under control is going to be someone’s problem, eventually. It may be a while because as much as the US sucks, right now, the rest of the world sucks worse. That relationship is unlikely to change anytime remotely soon. We’ll be a destination for capital flight for a long time, yet. If we can get our act together, that can fuel growth, rather than interest payments. If not, we’ve at least got access to other people’s money – until it runs out, of course.
Do I get my first check in seven years? Probably, but it won’t be the check I was promised. The SSA has a life expectancy calculator. It’s probably as garbage as the rest of the government’s statistics. (Have you seen the last eight weeks of unemployment numbers? They’re all exactly the same except for the weeks with holidays – how likely is that?) In any case, it says I’ll likely be dead by 82. So, 27 years until I die. That seem rather soon, but whatever.
Will any of this be resolved? Of course not. Life has only one resolution: Death. The rest of the world keeps on turning and problems keep popping up. There is no “resolution”. Will things be stable? Perhaps, but it will be a new stability. Europe will no longer be the same (I really need to get to Rome while there are still living Italians). China will fragment. Global trade will be rare – except with the US as the destination. We’ll have fusion power – it’s only 20 years away! (You caught the sarcasm, right?)
Can we get a political class that can navigate this? Almost by definition, “yes”. The world is not going to end. Politicians will exist. Things will be done. The “navigation” may make driving into lakes following Google maps look good, but we’re not all going to suddenly drop dead because we’re being led by a government that thinks the sun doesn’t shine on the dark side of the moon, which is made of gas.
We are living in interesting times. It’s going to get interesting-er.
Marked Up 