But I just made one, anyway. Since it’s buried in the comment section at Behind the Black, I’m repeating it here. We’ll get to see how well it ages.
I’m fairly optimistic about my neck of the woods. I’m not optimistic about the country.
When all it takes is a few corrupt cities to change the outcome of entire states and a few states to change the outcome of the entire country, it doesn’t matter if elections in Rapid City are clean and fair.
That said, tipping points are a thing. Predicting tipping points is not a thing. I’m hopeful, but not optimistic. I believe we’re still in the midst of “things will get worse before they get better”.
The wheels need to come off before change can happen. The USSR history [brought up as a tipping point example] is a good example of that. We have a ways to go before the wheels come off, here. We’re definitely on the path – they’re wobbling and the bearings are screaming – but the car is still more-or-less drivable. [Can I drop this metaphor, now?]
My prediction: Nothing “interesting” will change until we run out of other people’s money. Bond auctions are not going great, but they’re going. As much turmoil and uncertainty as exists here, it’s still much worse in most other places, so buying US dollars is still happening. Until we hoover up that excess cash, the status quo will continue, albeit with fits and starts of change.
Note that foreign purchases of US dollars are deflationary – it reduces the money supply (as our dollars end up elsewhere), which increases the value of the dollars left here. This is not exactly a problem in an otherwise inflationary time. But, like quantitative tightening, it is a problem for people holding debt, which is most everyone in the US, which includes me (although I did it purposefully since I think inflation will win).
Once that happens, the whirlwind will begin reaping (I know, subject/object misquote). It’s certainly possible that something else will start the reaping process, but they’re called “iron rice bowls” for a reason – they’re strong.
My guess: At least three more Presidential election cycles. Trump this time, but he’ll be unable to accomplish much (being the Little Dutch Boy is probably the most to expect, although one can hope for better). A giant fight in 2028 with a close enough race that the fraud throws it Democrat, but it doesn’t matter which party wins because that’s when the house of cards comes tumbling down as Social Security and Medicare/caid go broke (“broker” is fair enough) while interest on the debt is consuming the budget. The election after that in 2032 will see real change.
I was tempted to use the same picture of Cassandra that I used for the Cassandra database posts, but that would just be confusing.
Marked Up 